AEC industry growth data is misleading.

As I listen to stories from local AEC firms about their challenges and obstacles to growth, I've started gathering data and statistics about the state of the industry as a whole. Much of the information available on a national and global scale feels less relevant than ever, and I want to dig into why - and how it affects local & regional mid-size firms.

You might hear statistics like these:

• The median growth rate of AEC firms in the US in 2025-26 is 10.5%.

• The US AEC industry is expected to grow significantly at a CAGR of 13.9% from 2026 to 2033.

• The highest-growth firms in the US grew 40.7% on average in 2025.

And as a principal or owner at a Midwest firm, you might not be seeing numbers like this. You might actually be experiencing market contraction in the sectors and geographic areas you serve.

The truth is that these numbers are buoyed by AI-driven data center construction, expansion of renewable energy and energy transition projects, healthcare and defense projects, and peak construction of transportation, water infrastructure, and energy infrastructure projects from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act passed in 2021.

We've seen the impact of data center construction in the Midwest, but we also understand that there are limitations based on power and water infrastructure - and this one sector cannot be the sole growth engine for an entire industry forever.

So, what do you do if you don't design or build data centers? What if your expertise serves a market sector that is experiencing decline?

Here are a few thoughts:

Now is the time to become more efficient in your business operations. Define and document your business processes, eliminate gaps and waste, and prepare for automation. Become more consistent and disciplined in performing these functions.

Become incredibly clear about who you are as a firm. Your firm is not going to be the right fit for every project or potential client. Create profiles for your ideal clients and projects, and find out how to connect with them. Invest your time and resources in activities and assets that will put you in direct contact with these clients and projects.

Invest in client retention and repeat business. This is the most efficient way to win work. Become rigorous and disciplined about the execution of your projects and client communication from start to finish. Doing great work isn't only about pushing the boundaries of design, or precision craftsmanship on the job site - it's also about being proactive and responsive every time the client has a question or concern.

Want to discuss how the AEC industry and local / regional market is changing - and how your firm can adapt? Let's have a conversation!